New Parliamentary boundaries in Leeds

The proposed new Parliamentary boundaries are published tomorrow, but the report has already been leaked (Guido was the fastest to publish it). In Leeds the changes are dramatic with most constituencies looking entirely new.

Leeds North: consisting of Chapel Allerton from the old Leeds North East; Headingley and Weetwood from the old Leeds North West;, Hyde Park and Woodhouse from Leeds Central; and Kirkstall from Leeds West. Looks like a straight fight between Labour and the Lib Dems. The Lib Dem contender is almost certain to be Greg Mulholland while the the Labour contender is most likely to be somebody new. It’s a winnable Labour seat and the most likely Labour contender could be Fabian Hamilton, even though it only contains one ward from Leeds North East, as it is probably more winnable than Leeds North West and Nidderdale.

Leeds North East: contains none of the old Leeds North East, but instead is made up mainly of the old Leeds East wards of Crossgates and Whinmoor, Gipton and Harehills, Killingbeck and Seacroft; with the addition of Harewood and Wetherby from the old Elmet and Rothwell constituency. This is a harder one to call because of disproportionate turnouts – the strong Conservative wards of Harewood and Wetherby both have really high voter turnout, while the Labour wards have historically low turnouts. a straight fight between Labour and the Tories. The obvious contender for Labour is George Mudie, except he’s likely to stand down so we have a winnable marginal Labour seat up for grabs. The Conservative is likely to be Alex Shelbrooke the current MP for Elmet and Rothwell.

Leeds North West and Nidderdale: is only partially a Leeds seat as it contains a great chunk of Harrogate. The Leeds wards are Adel and Wharfdale from the old Leeds North West; the remainder are from the old Leeds North East and are Alwoodley, Moortown and Roundhay. This could be a three way fight, which with the current performance of the Lib Dems effectively means it will be Labour versus a Tory, but with a distinct Conservative lead.

Leeds South and Outwood: is made up of both Leeds and Wakefield wards. From Leeds Central there is Middleton Park along with City and Hunslet; from Morley and Outwood there is Ardsley and Robin Hood in Leeds with Stanley and Outwood East and Wrenthorpe and Outwood from West from Wakefield. Looks like a safe Labour seat, but for who? It could be either Hilary Benn from Leeds Central (a constituency that disappears entirely) or Ed Balls from Morley and Outwood. My money is on Hilary Benn.

Leeds South West and Morley: is mainly Leeds, but also gains Batley East from Batley and Spen constituency. It also has Beeston and Holbeck from Leeds Central; Farnley and Wortley from Leeds West; as well as Morley North and Morley South from Morley and Outwood. Should be another safe Labour seat. The logical approach would surely be Ed Balls here.

Leeds South East: consists of Burmantofts and Richmond Hill from Leeds Central; Garforth and Swillington, Kippax and Methley and Rothwell from Elmet and Rothwell; and Temple Newsam from Leeds East. This should be a safe Labour seat, but without an obvious candidate as George Mudie from Leeds East is unlikely to stand and it only has one ward from Hilary Benn’s Leeds Central. The three Elmet and Rothwell wards are currently represented by Conservative Alex Shelbrooke, but he’s far more likely to want to follow the Wetherby and Harewood bits of his constituency as he’d have zero chance in Leeds South East.

Leeds West and Pudsey: contains Armley, and Bramley and Stanningley from Leeds West; Calverley and Farsley, and Pudsey from the old Pudsey constituency; and Eccleshill from Bradford East. Should be another good Labour seat and the obvious contender is probably Rachel Reeves.

Guiseley and Yeadon: is a mix of Bradford and Leeds wards. From the old Pudsey constituency there is Guiseley and Rawdon, and Horsforth; from Leeds North West there is Otley and Yeadon; from Bradford West there is Baildon, and Idle and Thackley. This is likely to be a Conservative seat.

Based on my initial thinking this would leave the Leeds MPs standing in the following new seats:

Hilary Benn:  Leeds South and Outwood

Ed Balls: Leeds South West and Morley

Rachel Reeves: Leeds West and Pudsey

Fabian Hamilton: Leeds North

George Mudie: Leeds North East, but is more likely to stand down

That means there could be two very  winnable Labour seats up for grabs in Leeds and one potentially winnable seat. Leeds South East which has to be totally open as it doesn’t have a sitting or even recently defeated Labour MP in any of its wards. And Leeds North East where the sitting MP is almost certain not to stand again.