Leeds constituency boundary changes–more analysis

The Guardian data site has helpfully provided some data that enable you to make more ‘assumptions’ about the boundary changes. 

Predictions based on the 2010 general election (i.e. I can’t see where it says how it has calculated them, but it looks like via crude percentages from each old seat rather than votes per ward in local elections). Once I have the data based on votes per ward I’ll try and post an update.

What’s interesting about this is that none of the majorities are huge and it show the Liberal Democrats have a significant vote in both of the Conservative seats. It only takes a small amount of those Liberal Democrat voters to switch to Labour (many switched from Labour in the first place) for these seats to be winnable for Labour.

The other interesting data is the one that shows what percentage of the old constituencies goes into the new ones.

Guisley & Yeadon

Theoretically a Tory seat so the lead contender is likely to be Stuart Andrew, the existing Conservative MP for Pudsey. Given the size of the Liberal Democrat vote and the current state of affairs it’s also a seat where a hard-working Labour candidate actually has a chance.

Leeds North

Theoretically a Labour seat, but the largest component is Leeds North West which at the moment has the Liberal Democrat Greg Mulholland. Then there is approximately 20% each from Leeds West, Leeds Central and Leeds North East. Given that Hilary Benn (Leeds Central) and Rachel Reeves (Leeds West) both have alternatives – and that the new constituency that takes most of the old Leeds North East electorate is likely to be Conservative – this looks like one for Fabian Hamilton.

  Leeds North East

Theoretically a Labour seat with a healthy Labour majority. It’s widely expected that Leeds East MP George Mudie will stand down, which means that this is a winnable Labour seat that is going to be up for grabs.

Leeds North West & Nidderdale

The Guardian data predicts a tiny Conservative majority and the vast majority of this new constituency is the old Leeds North East seat with just 12% of it from wards outside Leeds. Does this mean that Labour’s Fabian Hamilton could win it with the benefit of incumbency? I’d be doubtful as there are some very strong Conservative council wards in there. But, against that you’ve got to factor in the potential unpopularity of the Conservatives as the coalition cuts begin to bite.

Leeds South & Outwood

A predicted Labour seat with an almost 50/50 split between the old Leeds Central and Morley & Outwood. In theory you’d think it should be Ed Balls as he has that extra 6%. However, that doesn’t take into account the fact that Leeds Central has disappeared entirely and that there isn’t another logical home for Hilary Benn.

Leeds South West & Morley

Another predicted seat for Leeds. The biggest single part are the two Morley wards from Morley & Outwood, but 57% of the constituency still comes from elsewhere – 16% from outside Leeds. It would make sense for Ed Balls to stay here as that then provides a seat for Hilary Benn.

Leeds West & Pudsey

According to The Guardian data another Labour seat. The obvious contender is Rachel Reeves whose current Leeds West seat makes up 42% of the new constituency, the 44% from Pudsey currently being represented by Conservative Stuart Andrew.

According to this analysis it means that all of the existing Labour MPs (who might want to stand again) have winnable seats and there are four Leeds seats ‘available’ for new candidates to be selected.

Leeds North East and Leeds South East are both theoretically good Labour seats with no existing contenders for either.

Guiseley & Yeadon and Leeds North West & Nidderdale although theoretically Conservative seats are both winnable for Labour, largely on the strength of the large but weak Liberal Democrat vote.