The newspapers and political blogs are already full of rumours and recommendations about a possible shadow cabinet reshuffle now that Ed Miliband has a free hand and isn’t bound by the ridiculous shadow cabinet elections. This is my contribution to the speculation, red stays in, blue is out as they doing more to help the Tories than us:

Leader of the Labour Party | Ed Miliband

Yes, I’d keep him, even though it was a truly dire speech.

Deputy Leader and Shadow Secretary of State for International Development | Harriet Harman

We need Harriet because she’s the only one with experience of being in the shadow cabinet before 1997, but she’s never one that impressed me – last on my list for the deputy leadership elections.

Shadow Chancellor | Ed Balls

Love him, or loath him you can’t deny that Ed is doing a cracking job, let’s leave him be.

Shadow Foreign Secretary | Douglas Alexander

He used to be one of Labour’s rising stars. Dumping him, would open up one of the four senior posts for someone who actually has talent.

Shadow Chief Whip | Rosie Winterton

Doing a good job, so let’s keep her in post.

Shadow Home Secretary and Minister for Women and Equalities | Yvette Cooper MP

She’s already in one of the four most senior posts, so the only place she could go is to replace Ed (M that is, not the hubby). Ed had better up his game, because she has.

Shadow Chief Secretary | Angela Eagle

So she’s doing one of the four most important jobs. You’d never know. Bye Angela.

Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Innovation & Skills | John Denham

Sorry John, this is a vital post as growing the economy is what will get us out of the mess, but I’m not hearing anything worthwhile from you.

Cabinet Office and Minister for the Olympics | Tessa Jowell

Sorry Tessa, heard you at the Progress rally and you used all the right words about a need for a new politics and trust. Problem is it didn’t sound like you actually understood them, it’s no good just trotting out buzz words.

Shadow Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government | Caroline Flint

Why is the speculation targeting Caroline? She’s doing a great job and is Labour’s best hope for helping us to come up with and sell some radical new ideas for local government – because we certainly need to dramatically shake up the status quo, but not always in the ways that the Tories want to.

Shadow Secretary of State for Culture, Media & Sport | Ivan Lewis

Hard one this. I like Ivan and think he’s doing a reasonable job, but his conference speech was dire and his idea for licensing journalists just bonkers. Sorry Ivan, you’re the only one I’d be sad to get rid of, but we need the space.

Shadow Leader of the House of Commons | Hilary Benn

Come on Ed, give the man a chance. He’s ace on radio interviews, so why don’t you deploy him more?

Shadow Secretary of State for Defence | Jim Murphy

Fairly neutral on Jim, but there are enough others that need to go so there is space for Jim to stay.

Shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs | Mary Creagh

Got off to a very slow start and could have been better on the whole forest sale issue, but has now well and truly got into her stride and is doing a great job,

Shadow Secretary of State for Education and Election Coordinator | Andy Burnham

Good performance all year and absolutely brilliant conference speech. Only possible reason for not promoting Andy is that he is so good at education which is vitally important. But there are others that could do that job, let’s get Andy into Shadow Foreign Secretary to give Hague a run for his money, which Douglas is failing spectacularly to do.

Disclaimer – not just saying that as Andy’s a friend, believe me it’s true!

Shadow Lord Chancellor, Secretary of State for Justice | Sadiq Khan

Another one I’m neutral about, so Sadiq can stay.

Shadow Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change | Meg Hillier

Meg, Meg this is important. The coalition is terrible. Shame your response is. Bye.

Shadow Secretary of State for Health | John Healey

This is a hard one. I’m usually impressed by John, but he’s been pretty weak so far on health. Let’s keep him in, but moved to something less important.

Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland | Shaun Woodward

Neutral again so Shaun can stay as he’s been good in the past and perhaps can be again.

Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland | Ann McKechin

Ann who? Bye.

Shadow Secretary of State for Transport | Maria Eagle

Transport is important and Maria’s not making the grade. Bye.

Shadow Secretary of State for Wales | Peter Hain

Peter impressed me in the deputy leadership elections so he can stay.

Shadow Secretary of State for Work & Pensions | Liam Byrne

Doing a good job, but let’s move him as I think that a new entrant would be good in this post.

Space for new blood

I’ve managed to find space for eight new faces, so these are some of my suggestions:

Rachel Reeves – great job as a junior DWP shadow, so let’s put her in the big seat and give Liam something else.

Chuka Umunna – heard him give a great speach at the FSB fringe. Since I want to get rid of John Denham, let’s give Chuka a promotion in the same shadow department he’s already in.

John Woodcock – a rising star that isn’t talked about enough. Let’s get him out of the junior shadow transport job and into the hot seat to replace Maria.

Gerry Sutcliffe – we don’t want too many very new faces and Gerry is a seasoned performer who’ll bring some gravitas to the shadow front bench, but will also seem new as he’s relatively unknown.

Michael Dugher – could make a good attack dog and we need one.

Gloria De Piero – hasn’t shone yet like all of the others I name, but has potential.

Don’t know enough about the rest of the possibilities, so can’t make any more suggestions.

I’ve now got the data to do the new Leeds constituency predictions by votes in the 2010 local elections, which in Leeds happened at the same time as the general election. It’s also a flawed method as it doesn’t take into account factors such as people voting different ways in local and national elections, and it also doesn’t take into account where the available parties are different in the local and national elections. This is most notable in Morley where the Morley Borough Independents won both Morley wards in the local election, but didn’t stand in the general election.

Guardian predictions on percentage of general election vote

Predictions based on 2010 local election results by ward

As you can see both sets of predictions are significantly different in the size of majorities they predict. And if we looked at the 2011 local election results we’d see yet another set of results.

That said, it still leaves Labour with six of the eight seats, the main difference being in the size of the predicted majorities in the other two – and that the Liberal Democrats manage to win Guisley and Rawdon, which is doubtful.

The Guardian data site has helpfully provided some data that enable you to make more ‘assumptions’ about the boundary changes. 

Predictions based on the 2010 general election (i.e. I can’t see where it says how it has calculated them, but it looks like via crude percentages from each old seat rather than votes per ward in local elections). Once I have the data based on votes per ward I’ll try and post an update.

What’s interesting about this is that none of the majorities are huge and it show the Liberal Democrats have a significant vote in both of the Conservative seats. It only takes a small amount of those Liberal Democrat voters to switch to Labour (many switched from Labour in the first place) for these seats to be winnable for Labour.

The other interesting data is the one that shows what percentage of the old constituencies goes into the new ones.

Guisley & Yeadon

Theoretically a Tory seat so the lead contender is likely to be Stuart Andrew, the existing Conservative MP for Pudsey. Given the size of the Liberal Democrat vote and the current state of affairs it’s also a seat where a hard-working Labour candidate actually has a chance.

Leeds North

Theoretically a Labour seat, but the largest component is Leeds North West which at the moment has the Liberal Democrat Greg Mulholland. Then there is approximately 20% each from Leeds West, Leeds Central and Leeds North East. Given that Hilary Benn (Leeds Central) and Rachel Reeves (Leeds West) both have alternatives – and that the new constituency that takes most of the old Leeds North East electorate is likely to be Conservative – this looks like one for Fabian Hamilton.

  Leeds North East

Theoretically a Labour seat with a healthy Labour majority. It’s widely expected that Leeds East MP George Mudie will stand down, which means that this is a winnable Labour seat that is going to be up for grabs.

Leeds North West & Nidderdale

The Guardian data predicts a tiny Conservative majority and the vast majority of this new constituency is the old Leeds North East seat with just 12% of it from wards outside Leeds. Does this mean that Labour’s Fabian Hamilton could win it with the benefit of incumbency? I’d be doubtful as there are some very strong Conservative council wards in there. But, against that you’ve got to factor in the potential unpopularity of the Conservatives as the coalition cuts begin to bite.

Leeds South & Outwood

A predicted Labour seat with an almost 50/50 split between the old Leeds Central and Morley & Outwood. In theory you’d think it should be Ed Balls as he has that extra 6%. However, that doesn’t take into account the fact that Leeds Central has disappeared entirely and that there isn’t another logical home for Hilary Benn.

Leeds South West & Morley

Another predicted seat for Leeds. The biggest single part are the two Morley wards from Morley & Outwood, but 57% of the constituency still comes from elsewhere – 16% from outside Leeds. It would make sense for Ed Balls to stay here as that then provides a seat for Hilary Benn.

Leeds West & Pudsey

According to The Guardian data another Labour seat. The obvious contender is Rachel Reeves whose current Leeds West seat makes up 42% of the new constituency, the 44% from Pudsey currently being represented by Conservative Stuart Andrew.

According to this analysis it means that all of the existing Labour MPs (who might want to stand again) have winnable seats and there are four Leeds seats ‘available’ for new candidates to be selected.

Leeds North East and Leeds South East are both theoretically good Labour seats with no existing contenders for either.

Guiseley & Yeadon and Leeds North West & Nidderdale although theoretically Conservative seats are both winnable for Labour, largely on the strength of the large but weak Liberal Democrat vote.

The jockeying for position for the Shadow Cabinet elections has already started and LabourList has published its first list of the predicted Labour Shadow Cabinet contenders. In theory there are 19 positions of for grabs, in reality it’s not so straightforward as we’ve got the losing four leadership candidates who can all (even Diane?) be expected to get positions. This leaves 15 positions in real contention of which five will have to go to women (still assuming that all four leadership contenders get a place).

My 15 is not just those on LabourList, but those that I would like to see in cabinet (but excluding those who have explicitly ruled themselves out e.g. Tom Watson). My Shadow Cabinet votes (in order of preference) would therefore be:

1. Yvette Cooper
2. Alan Johnson
3. Hilary Benn
4. Gerry Sutcliffe
5. Ivan Lewis
6. Liam Byrne
7. Rosie Winterton
8. Caroline Flint
9. Tom Harris
10. Sadiq Kahn
11. Tessa Jowell
12. Ben Bradshaw
13. Siobhan McDonagh
14. Douglas Alexander
15. Chris Bryant